https://derekwang2002.github.io/ai-intelligence/en/projects/metr-time-horizon-review/ Material changes in AI models, agents, engineering and infrastructure, with primary sources and recommendations. en Mon, 02 Nov 2026 16:56:00 GMT https://derekwang2002.github.io/ai-intelligence/en/events/ev-20261008-03/ ev-20261008-03-published Fri, 09 Oct 2026 15:56:33 GMT New WATCH <p>A statistical reanalysis recomputes METR 50% time horizons across 228 tasks and 26 AIs. Nonlinear models show that moving from three to 30 minutes is much easier than moving from 30 minutes to five hours, despite both being tenfold gains. The authors recommend interpreting horizons together with diagnostic plots.</p><p>Recommendation: WATCH</p><p>Sources: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12466">Statistical validity of AI time horizons</a></p>