Open-weight agentic coding models from Chinese labs competing at frontier level

1. Qwen3.8-27B weights released (Apache 2.0, 91k downloads day-one, 2026-08-14)
2. GLM-5.3 launch (weights pending ~8/28, 2026-08-14)
3. Adjacent context: Meta Muse Glimmer / Muse Spark 1.2 open weights (2026-08-10, US lab — same direction, different scope)
4. Background: Kimi K3 2.8T open weights (2026-07-16)
5. GLM-5.3 weights landed: HF zai-org/GLM-5.3 (FP8, 153 files) + GLM-5.3-BF16 created 2026-08-25, 753B total params, ungated; the custom glm-5.3 license is MIT-style with a single security-review clause for >$10B-revenue MaaS businesses; day-0 vLLM/SGLang/TokenSpeed/KTransformers/Unsloth/vLLM-Ascend support (primary source, ev-20260814-02 update)
6. Independent eval: Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index — GLM-5.3 (max) at 60 (on par with Kimi K3, +7 over GLM-5.2); GLM-5.3-Flash at 57 (added 8/26); GLM-5.3-Flash open-sourced under plain MIT the same day (320B-A18B, new base, hybrid sparse-linear attention — same-org reinforcing signal, ev-20260825-01)
7. Qwen3.8-Flash-Next open-weight architecture preview (Qwen, dated 2026-08-26; HF repo created 8/24; coverage-gap recovery, ev-20260826-04): 125B/6B-activated + 51B n-gram embedding + 4B MTP (~180B), Gated DeltaNet linear attention + Qwen Sparse Attention every 4th layer, 262k native context (1M via YaRN), multimodal; custom qwen-community-1.0 license; 52k downloads and 4.2k likes in 4 days — a same-direction open-weight reinforcement from a different org, landing hybrid linear attention in the same week as GLM-5.3-Flash (cross-org technical convergence)
8. GLM-5.3-Flash download velocity (verified 2026-08-29): 189,793 downloads (~4 days after listing; 30d window = all-time) + 1,557 likes; GLM-5.3 FP8 at 8,804 (753B artifact); vLLM recipe page live, NVFP4 quantized-serving discussions appearing (ev-20260825-01 update)
9. Tencent Hy4 preview open weights (Tencent, announced 2026-08-28, HF repos created 8/27; coverage-gap recovery, ev-20260828-02): 770B total / 49B active MoE, context beyond 1M, Apache 2.0 (per HF tags), standard + FP8 weights with a day-0 vLLM recipe — the third Chinese lab to open-source major weights in one week, and the closest candidate yet for the same-tier-different-org criterion (b); however the only eval is a vendor-run blind test (163 experts / 203 tasks, 2.99 vs GLM-5.3 2.92, Kimi K3 2.94), there are no public benchmark scores, and it is a preview; ~1.4k downloads in 2 days
10. Download velocity confirmed (verified 2026-08-31): the HF counters frozen for two days all rolled — GLM-5.3-Flash at 346,516 downloads 6 days after listing (+83% vs the 8/29 sample) + 1,711 likes; Qwen3.8-Flash-Next at 121,976 (+133%) + 4,384 likes; the GLM-5.3 FP8 flagship repo 8,804 -> 50,116 (~5.7x — the 753B weights now pulled at scale) — cross-org (Z.ai / Qwen), cross-size (320B / 180B / 753B) growth simultaneously, confirming criterion (c) sustained download velocity; Hy4 preview modest (2,123 main + 1,469 FP8) (ev-20260825-01 / ev-20260826-04 / ev-20260814-02 / ev-20260828-02 updates)
11. DeepSeek V4-Flash-Vision-Exp open weights (2026-08-31, MIT, ev-20260831-02): the V4 family's first multimodal model, holding Flash-tier text-agent benchmarks (TB 2.1 83.9 vs Opus-4.8 85.0) while jumping multimodal agent benchmarks (ApexBench 36.5 vs 26.2 for the text-only sibling that ignores multimodal input) — the open-weight wave extending from text coding agents into multimodal agents; ~17.9k downloads + 452 likes within ~1 day of weights landing
12. Velocity continuation + community serving tooling (verified 2026-09-02): GLM-5.3-Flash 441,348 (+27% vs 8/31), Qwen3.8-Flash-Next 207,941 (+70%, plus 130,451 FP8), GLM-5.3 FP8 94,403 (+88%), Hy4 3,516 (+66%) — a second consecutive growth cycle; unsloth GGUF derivatives (Flash 63.7k / Flash-Next 431k); slotstream (Show HN, 147 pts) streams the 104GB 4-bit Flash-Next from SSD on a 48GB M5 Pro at ~12 tok/s warm decode (32GB peak, Ollama/OpenAI-compatible APIs); serving research catching up with hybrid architectures (Tail-Replay/DASC: prefix caching and state compression for hybrid linear attention, ev-20260901-04) (ev-20260825-01 / ev-20260826-04 / ev-20260814-02 / ev-20260828-02 updates)
13. Third consecutive velocity cycle + serving ecosystem maturing (verified 2026-09-05): GLM-5.3 FP8 94,403 -> 303,534 (+222% — the 753B weights pulled at scale), GLM-5.3-Flash 441,348 -> 654,957 (+48%), Qwen3.8-Flash-Next 207,941 -> 351,374 (+69%, plus FP8 186,676), Hy4 preview 3,516 -> 5,684 (+62%), DeepSeek V4-Flash-Vision-Exp 17.9k -> 133,024 (steepest relative pull-rate of the window); the unsloth Flash-Next GGUF derivative reached 702,251, exceeding Qwen's own main repo; NVIDIA published nvidia/Qwen3.8-Flash-Next-NVFP4 (9/2) and AMD published GLM-5.3 Quark quantizations — silicon vendors now ship official quantizations for this wave; serving research keeps catching up: an NVFP4 W4A4 whole-model recipe for hybrids (ev-20260905-03) and the random-KV-eviction negative result (ev-20260905-04); GLM-5.3-Flash discussion #38 carries the first third-party FP8 deployment throughput report (2x L40S) (ev-20260814-02 / ev-20260825-01 / ev-20260826-04 / ev-20260828-02 / ev-20260831-02 updates)
14. Fourth consecutive velocity cycle (verified 2026-09-08): GLM-5.3 FP8 303,534 -> 442,064 (+46%), GLM-5.3-Flash 654,957 -> 784,005 (+20%), Qwen3.8-Flash-Next 351,374 -> 474,693 (+35%, plus FP8 224,875), Hy4 preview 5,684 -> 6,705 (+18%), DeepSeek V4-Flash-Vision-Exp 133,024 -> 251,611 (+89%, steepest relative pull-rate for the second consecutive check); unsloth Flash-Next GGUF 702,251 -> 868,243 and NVIDIA's NVFP4 derivative at 18,068 — the 753B flagship and every derivative line still growing (ev-20260814-02 / ev-20260825-01 / ev-20260826-04 / ev-20260828-02 / ev-20260831-02 updates)
15. 15. Criterion (b) met + fifth consecutive velocity cycle (checked 2026-09-11): DeepSeek V4.1 Flash open-weights (9/10, MIT, 763B total/552B backbone, TB 2.1 90.6 above every listed proprietary model, DeepSWE 74.2; 75.7k downloads in ~1.5 days) — a same-tier open-weight release from another organization at GLM-5.3's exact scale class (763B vs 753B); counters fifth cycle: GLM-5.3 FP8 597,626 (+35%), Flash 1,173,520 (+50%), Flash-Next 586,040 + FP8 349,091, Hy4 8,219, V4-Flash-Vision 443,954; serving diagnostics follow the hybrid architectures (SinkProbe, ev-20260910-14); safety spillover made concrete — a single-direction ablation strips refusal from the shipped block-FP8 GLM-5.3-Flash weights (ev-20260911-06)
16. 16. Sixth consecutive velocity cycle + the nearest approach yet to a weights-side reproduction (checked 2026-09-13T00:03Z): GLM-5.3 FP8 635,504 (+6.3%), GLM-5.3-Flash 1,333,574 (+13.6%), Flash-Next 604,992 + FP8 369,963 (+3.2%/+6.0%), Hy4 8,936 (+8.7%), V4-Flash-Vision 484,422 (+9.1%), DeepSeek V4.1-Flash 140,636 (steepest, ~2.5 days after release); unsloth Flash-Next GGUF 1,160,057 and the NVIDIA NVFP4 derivative 89,924 (~5x in 4 days) - every line still growing, though the per-day slope on the Qwen/GLM Flash lines is below the prior 3-day cycles. Criterion (a) sees its nearest approach yet: HF discussion #50 (9/12) runs the public weights on a single DGX Spark (GB10, 128GB unified memory) with 2-bit routed experts, HumanEval 97.0% above the z.ai API's 95.1% (identical prompts, temperature 0; reproduction artifacts public) - but HumanEval is not Terminal-Bench/SWE, so the criterion remains unmet. Adjacent (vendor-reported, not counted): Z.ai's engineering post (9/12) discloses that the ox-alpha anonymous-testing phase ran entirely on a Chinese-AI-chip cluster (custom SGLang engine, EPD disaggregation, 3x end-to-end improvement, cost comparable to mainstream NVIDIA GPUs) (ev-20260825-01 update)
17. 17. Serving paths reach merged upstream code (2026-09-13 UTC): vLLM merged DeepSelect sparse-indexer TopK and Engram DP-sharding/async CPU-offload/shared-memory tables for DeepSeek V4.1-Flash; SGLang merged a one-DGX-Spark / GB10 path for nvidia/Qwen3.8-Flash-Next-NVFP4 (200-question GSM8K 97.5%/97.0%, about 93/90 tok/s). Both remain on main and untagged, so this is continued open-weight serving adoption, not a TB/SWE reproduction on the weights (ev-20260910-01 / ev-20260826-04 updates).
18. 18. vLLM 0.30.0 tagged stable (2026-09-22, ev-20260922-01): previously merged serving paths for DeepSeek V4.1, GLM-5.3, Qwen3.8 and other open-weight models enter a stable release alongside a resident GPU weight cache, HiSparse host KV tier and broad security hardening. Serving-adoption evidence strengthens, but this is still not a third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights.
19. 19. Hy4 30-day adoption review (2026-09-27, ev-20260828-02): monthly downloads rose from 8,219 on September 11 to 22,788 (+177%), but only preview and FP8 repositories exist. HF leaderboard metadata lacks a reproducible run and named independent evaluator, so this strengthens adoption evidence without satisfying the independent-reproduction criterion.
20. Nanbeige4.3-33B opens 33B/512K weights, with publisher-only evaluation so far.

Review log

1. 2026-08-16 · No new independent signals in window (GLM-5.3 reaching Product Hunt #3 is community heat only). Status/Confidence unchanged.
2. 2026-08-17 · Coverage-gap note: Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B (the open-weight sibling of the Qwen3.8-Max flagship, Apache-2.0 + official FP8) was published to HF on 2026-08-13, before this KB's first scan window. It is logged as background evidence only, not counted as a new in-window signal (same organization as the 27B). Adoption: 7.9k/10.7k downloads (BF16/FP8) in the first days, day-0 support from vLLM, SGLang and TokenSpeed, plus an NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 serving blog. Status/Confidence unchanged.
3. 2026-08-18 · No new signals in window (GLM-5.3 weights still pending ~8/28). Status/Confidence unchanged.
4. 2026-08-19 · No new in-window signals (GLM-5.3 weights still pending; the zai-org/GLM-5.3 HF repository does not exist yet). Background cross-reference (not counted as evidence): OpenAI's 'The Defender's Window' (8/10, out of window) expects an open-weight model with near-frontier cyber capabilities by end of August, significantly intensifying the threat landscape — timing aligns with GLM-5.3 (~8/28). Status/Confidence unchanged.
5. 2026-08-20 · No new in-window signals (GLM-5.3 weights still pending; HF API confirms zai-org/GLM-5.3 is still absent and zai-org's latest public model remains GLM-5). Qwen3.8's continued HF trending dominance (1M+ main-repo downloads, unsloth GGUF 4.3M) is a continuation of existing background, not counted as new evidence. Status/Confidence unchanged.
6. 2026-08-21 · No new in-window signals (GLM-5.3 weights still pending ~8/28; HF API still returns 401 for zai-org/GLM-5.3 — the repository does not exist). Qwen3.8-27B (1.37M downloads), Kimi-K3, MiniMax-H3 and the DeepSeek-V4-Flash family continue to dominate HF trending, a continuation of the existing Chinese open-weight dominance background, not counted as new evidence. Status/Confidence unchanged.
7. 2026-08-22 · No new in-window signals (GLM-5.3 weights still pending ~8/28; HF API still returns 401 for zai-org/GLM-5.3 — the repository does not exist; zai-org's latest public model remains GLM-5). Chinese labs were quiet in-window. The Qwen3.8-27B ecosystem on HF trending (1.73M main-repo downloads, unsloth GGUF 5.8M, FP8 1.9M, derivative Uncensored variants 100k-1.1M) is a continuation of existing background, not counted as new evidence. A background cross-reference grew materially stronger (still not counted as evidence): OpenAI's official security post 'Pacing model development...' (announced 8/18, long-form post 8/20) confirms the model-driven breach of HF production infrastructure and assesses Astra as near the Critical cyber-capability threshold. That aligns with 'The Defender's Window' expectation for end-of-August open-weight cyber capabilities (see ev-20260818-04). Status/Confidence unchanged.
8. 2026-08-24 · No new in-window signals (GLM-5.3 weights still pending ~8/28; HF API still returns 401 for zai-org/GLM-5.3 — the repository does not exist; zai-org's latest public model remains GLM-5; Chinese labs quiet over the weekend). The 'GLM-5.3 found 1,097 vulnerabilities' piece and the TokenCost pricing article circulating in-window both repeat 8/14 launch-week facts. New mirror-image background (not counted as evidence): on 8/22 WSJ reported that Nvidia plans to build a US open-weight model through its $6B Poolside deal, explicitly targeting DeepSeek and Kimi. This is the first heavyweight US supply-side response to the trend, and it confirms from the other side that the open-weight frontier has become the battleground (see ev-20260822-01). Status/Confidence unchanged.
9. 2026-08-28 · Upgraded to strengthening / Medium: the confirmation criterion is substantially met — GLM-5.3 weights landed 8/25 (permissive glm-5.3 license, ungated, 753B) plus the Artificial Analysis independent eval at 60 (on par with Kimi K3); GLM-5.3-Flash open-sourced under plain MIT the same day (same-org reinforcement, ev-20260825-01). Safety note: the model card discloses emergent post-training cyber capability (CyberGym 84.5 open-weights SOTA; ExploitGym more than double GLM-5.2), timing-wise consistent with OpenAI's "Defender's Window" expectation of end-of-August open-weight cyber capability (background cross-reference, not counted as evidence).
10. 2026-08-29 · Criterion-by-criterion audit: (a) community independent reproduction of the weights NOT met — the "community evaluation results" PRs merged 8/28-29 (HF discussions #2/#3) only sync model-card numbers into .eval_results metadata (source field "Model Card"), not third-party runs; (b) same-tier release from another org partially met — Qwen3.8-Flash-Next is an open-weight architecture preview but experimental, not a same-tier flagship; (c) download velocity met on the Flash side (189,793/4d). New evidence: Flash-Next (cross-org) and Flash download velocity. Two hybrid-linear-attention releases in one week form a technical convergence. 1/3 criteria fully met — stays strengthening / Medium. Also: GLM-5.3 model card rewritten 8/27 with the full benchmark table public (TB 2.1 88.2 / DeepSWE 66.9 / CyberGym 84.5; same base, post-training-only gains).
11. 2026-08-30 · No new releases in-window (Saturday). Criterion audit: (a) community reproduction of the weights still NOT met — new HF discussions are all minor (citation error, FP8/BF16 question, refusal feedback, typo PR); no reproducible third-party Terminal Bench / SWE runs. (b) Same-tier release from another org — Tencent Hy4 preview (770B/49B, Apache 2.0, 1M+ context) is the strongest candidate yet, but preview positioning plus a vendor-only blind test leaves this close-but-not-fully-met. (c) Download velocity — the 30-day pools for GLM-5.3-Flash (189,793) and Flash-Next (52,341) did not roll over (likes +60 / +74); re-sample next cycle. Evidence item 9 added (Hy4, ev-20260828-02). Mirror background (not counted): Nvidia's reported $12.9B Hugging Face acquisition (8/27, ev-20260827-03) — the second heavyweight US supply-side move after Poolside/Nemotron, again confirming from the other side that the open-weight frontier is the battleground. Stays strengthening / Medium.
12. 2026-08-31 · No new releases in-window (Sunday). Criterion audit: (a) community reproduction of the weights still NOT met — HF discussions #7-#9 (8/29-30) are all minor (release-cadence question, citation error, praise); the FP8 repo grew 5.7x in two days to 50,116, so the reproduction window is opening, but there are still no third-party Terminal Bench / SWE runs. (b) Same-tier release from another org unchanged — full Hy4 not shipped (official wording still just 'soon'), and aggregator-circulated benchmark scores do not exist in primary sources. (c) Download velocity CONFIRMED — rolled growth across three repos (new evidence item 10). Background cross-reference (not counted): the METR / OpenAI reports of 8/26 explicitly warn that 'many external models, including open-source ones, will soon reach comparable capabilities', same direction as 'The Defender's Window' (ev-20260818-04 update). 1/3 criteria fully met plus (b) close — stays strengthening / Medium.
13. 2026-09-02 · One new same-direction release in-window: DeepSeek V4-Flash-Vision-Exp (8/31, MIT, multimodal agent) — new evidence item 11. Criterion audit: (a) community reproduction of the weights still NOT met — HF discussions #10-#15 (8/31-9/1) remain metadata-sync PRs and refusal complaints, with no third-party Terminal Bench / SWE runs (vLLM crash threads show deployment friction, not reproduction); (b) same-tier release from another org unchanged — full Hy4 not shipped, and AMD Instella-MoE (16B-A2.8B) is an order of magnitude smaller; (c) download velocity continuation CONFIRMED (second consecutive cycle, new evidence item 12). Serving research is catching up with hybrid linear-attention architectures (Tail-Replay/DASC, ev-20260901-04); the Qwen3.8-Next design paper (ev-20260901-03) publishes the ~1/9 training-FLOPs economics. Stays strengthening / Medium.
14. 2026-09-05 · No new same-tier open-weight release in-window (full Hy4 still not shipped; Muse Spark 1.3 is an API iteration with open weights only teased). Criterion audit: (a) community reproduction of the weights still NOT met — of discussions #16-#19, #18 is an independent quantization-fidelity measurement (KL on frozen tokens), a genuine independent measurement but not a Terminal Bench / SWE run; on the Flash side #38 is the first third-party deployment throughput report, partial progress; (b) same-tier release from another org unchanged; (c) third consecutive velocity cycle CONFIRMED (new evidence item 13), with the serving ecosystem advancing from framework support to silicon-vendor official quantizations and quantization-recipe research. Stays strengthening / Medium.
15. 2026-09-08 · No new same-tier open-weight release in-window (full Hy4 still not shipped; Muse Spark open weights still only teased). Criterion audit: (a) community reproduction of the weights still NOT met — discussions #15/#16 are .eval_results metadata PRs (Toolathlon-Verified; terminal-bench-3.0 pointing at the unified harborframework dataset), not third-party TB/SWE runs on the weights; #20 is behavioral feedback; serving research keeps catching up (cache-x-quantization reproducibility and the hybrid attention/recurrence division — ev-20260908-01/03); (b) unchanged; (c) fourth consecutive velocity cycle CONFIRMED (new evidence item 14). Stays strengthening / Medium.
16. 2026-09-12 · Criteria re-check: (b) met by DeepSeek V4.1 Flash — another org, same scale class (763B vs 753B), MIT, frontier agentic-coding scores; (c) fifth consecutive velocity cycle (evidence item 15); (a) still unmet (discussions #43-#48 hold no third-party TB/SWE run; #48 is Omen Alpha identity speculation). Maintained strengthening / Medium.
17. 2026-09-12 · 02:08Z follow-up scan: no new same-tier open-weight model and no third-party Terminal-Bench / SWE reproduction on GLM-5.3 or DeepSeek V4.1-Flash. The short window does not count another download-velocity cycle. Stays strengthening / Medium.
18. 2026-09-13 · Criteria re-check: (a) still unmet but at its nearest approach yet - HF discussion #50 (9/12T21:43Z) runs GLM-5.3-Flash weights on a single DGX Spark (GB10, 128GB) with 2-bit routed experts + an FP4 hot-expert pool, HumanEval 97.0% / HumanEval+ 93.9% both above the z.ai API (95.1%/89.6%, identical prompts, temperature 0), reproduction artifacts public - still not TB/SWE; (b) met; (c) sixth consecutive velocity cycle (evidence item 16), per-day slopes cooling but every line growing. Adjacent (not counted): Z.ai's engineering post discloses the Chinese-AI-chip serving stack and 3x improvement (vendor-reported). Stays strengthening / Medium.
19. 2026-09-13 · 01:02Z follow-up scan: no new same-tier open-weight model and no third-party Terminal-Bench / SWE reproduction on GLM-5.3 or DeepSeek V4.1-Flash. The short window does not count another download-velocity cycle. Stays strengthening / Medium.
20. 2026-09-14 · vLLM and SGLang merged new serving paths for DeepSeek V4.1-Flash and Qwen3.8-Flash-Next-NVFP4 respectively (new evidence item 17). Both remain untagged, and there is still no third-party Terminal-Bench / SWE reproduction on the weights. Stays strengthening / Medium.
21. 2026-09-15 · The September 14 arXiv digest adds architecture research on SAS, SQD and constant-state diffusion caches, but no new same-tier open-weight model and no third-party Terminal-Bench / SWE reproduction on GLM-5.3 or DeepSeek V4.1-Flash. Stays strengthening / Medium.
22. 2026-09-16 · No independent in-window evidence changed the confirmation criteria. Status and confidence stay unchanged.
23. 2026-09-17 · No third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights and no new cross-organization release appeared. OPEN-1B concerns training auditability rather than frontier coding capability. Stays strengthening / Medium.
24. 2026-09-18 · No new same-tier open-weight model or third-party Terminal-Bench/SWE reproduction appeared. HOPE studies compression rather than frontier coding capability. Stays strengthening / Medium.
25. 2026-09-19 · SGLang 0.5.20 packages stable serving paths for GLM-5.3-Flash, Qwen3.8-Flash-Next and DeepSeek-V4-Flash, but no third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights appeared. Stays strengthening / Medium.
26. 2026-09-20 · Qwen3.8-LiveTranslate is a speech-translation model and OpenVINO 2026.4 is serving infrastructure. No new same-tier open-weight coding model or third-party Terminal-Bench/SWE reproduction appeared. Stays strengthening / Medium.
27. 2026-09-21 · Qwen-Image-2.1 is an image-generation and editing model and does not change the open-weight coding capability criteria. No third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction appeared. Stays strengthening / Medium.
28. 2026-09-22 · No new same-tier open-weight coding model or third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction appeared. Stays strengthening / Medium.
29. 2026-09-23 · vLLM 0.30 moves several open-weight serving paths into a tagged stable runtime, strengthening adoption evidence. Third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction is still missing. Stays strengthening / Medium.
30. 2026-09-25 · No third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights appeared; the Qwen Code runtime release is not weight evidence. Stays strengthening / Medium.
31. 2026-09-26 · No third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights appeared; LFM2.5-VL-DSpark is a speculative-decoding component, not coding-capability evidence. Stays strengthening / Medium.
32. 2026-09-27 · No third-party Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights and no new peer open-weight model appeared. Stays strengthening / Medium.
33. 2026-09-27 · The follow-up scan found no new independent signal sufficient to change this trend. Status and confidence are unchanged; the GPT-6 image-encoding fix is an engineering update to an existing release.
34. 2026-09-27 · Hy4 monthly downloads rose 177% from the September 11 check, strengthening adoption evidence. The full model and reproducible third-party evaluation remain absent. Stays strengthening / Medium.
35. 2026-09-28 · This scan found no new independent signal sufficient to change the assessment. Status and confidence remain unchanged.
36. 2026-09-29 · This scan found no new independent signal sufficient to change the assessment. Status and confidence remain unchanged.
37. 2026-10-02 · No new signals changed the status or confidence in this run.
38. 2026-10-03 · No new signals changed the status or confidence in this run.
39. 2026-10-04 · No new signals changed the status or confidence in this run.
40. 2026-10-05 · No new signal in this cycle was strong enough to change status or confidence.
41. 2026-10-06 · No new signal in this cycle was strong enough to change status or confidence.
42. 2026-10-07 · No new signal in this cycle was strong enough to change status or confidence.
43. 2026-10-08 · No new signal was strong enough to change status or confidence.
44. 2026-10-09 · No new independent signal in this run; status unchanged.
45. 2026-10-09 · Qwen-Image-2.1-Turbo and Youtu-Parsing-Omni expand open-weight multimodal supply but do not add coding-agent evidence; status unchanged.
46. 2026-10-10 · No new open-weight coding-agent model signal appeared; status unchanged.
47. 2026-10-14 · No new open-weight coding-agent model signal from a Chinese lab appeared; status unchanged.
48. 2026-10-12 · No new open-weight coding-agent model signal appeared; status unchanged.
49. 2026-10-12 · No new open-weight coding-agent model signal appeared; status unchanged.
50. 2026-10-14 · LFM2.5 adds an open-weight reasoning and tool-use signal, but it comes from Liquid AI and does not change this trend's Chinese-lab assessment.
51. 2026-10-16 · Muse Spark Open adds a US-lab open-weight coding-model signal but does not change this trend’s Chinese-lab assessment.
52. 2026-10-16 · No new evidence in this run changes the status.
53. 2026-10-17 · DeepSeek V4.1-Flash-1017 adds a new public checkpoint and vendor-reported coding gains, but no independent reproduction; status stays strengthening / Medium.
54. 2026-10-18 · Ling-3.1-flash adds MIT weights and serving recipes, but the coding harness and reproducible 1M context remain missing; stays strengthening / Medium.
55. 2026-10-20 · Artificial Analysis independently evaluated the hosted DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 API, but this is still not a Terminal-Bench or SWE reproduction on public weights; M3.1 Flash weights also remain promised, so strengthening / Medium is unchanged.
56. 2026-10-21 · No new open-weight coding-model evidence appeared this run; strengthening / Medium is unchanged.
57. 2026-10-21 · No new open-weight coding-model evidence appeared; strengthening / Medium is unchanged.
58. 2026-10-23 · No new signal in this run changed status or confidence.
59. 2026-10-24 · No signal in this run changes status or confidence.
60. 2026-10-24 · No new rating-changing signal in this run.
61. 2026-10-24 · Moonshot launched the Kimi K3.1 Pro API and promised weights by November 4; this adds an API-availability signal, not an open-weight release.
62. 2026-10-25 · Nanbeige4.3-33B adds a testable Apache-2.0 33B/512K release from a Chinese lab; independent evaluation is still missing.
63. 2026-10-27 · No new evidence in this run changed the trend stage.
64. 2026-10-27 · No new independent signal in this run changes status or confidence.
65. 2026-10-28 · This run updates Qwen Code runtime behavior rather than model weights; no new cross-organization evidence changes the trend.
66. 2026-10-30 · No peer coding-weight release from a Chinese lab or third-party Terminal-Bench/SWE reproduction appeared; status is unchanged.
67. 2026-10-31 · Lumma and Clover add open-weight signals, but not peer Chinese-lab coding weights or third-party reproduction; status is unchanged.
68. 2026-10-31 · Follow-up confirms public MiniMax M3.1 Flash weights, while SenseNova-Loop-9B adds open weights and code, strengthening the signal from Chinese agentic-model teams.
69. 2026-11-02 · No new signal in this run changes the current trend judgment.
70. 2026-11-03 · No new signal in this run changes the current trend judgment.